GOES-East: Sector view: Tropical Atlantic at 18:58 on July 3, 2021.
Tropical Storm Elsa is heading quickly to Haiti, then to Jamaica and Cuba, this weekend before a potential runway to Florida and the southeastern U.S. with gusty winds and heavy rains.
Starting at 5pm from National Hurricane Center, the Florida Keys, west of Dry Turtles, are now under tropical storm watch.
This means tropical storm conditions could arrive late Sunday through Monday morning in South Florida. South Florida and the Florida Keys can expect 2-4 inches of rain with heavier local rainfall of up to 6 inches. This can cause some localized flooding.
In accordance with Jax Action News, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has issued a state of emergency statement on Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco counties, Pinellas and Sarasota.
There will be some high tides and storm surges associated with the Elsa movement until Sunday and Monday. A combination of storm tides and tides will cause flooding in normally dry areas, and if the tide occurs during a high tide, the water heights could be one to two feet from Craig Key, Florida, to Dry Turtles.
On Sunday, tropical storm Elsa will sweep through Jamaica and then to Cuba on Sunday and through Monday. In Cuba and the Cayman Islands, heavy rains and storms are expected to arrive on Sunday. These islands can expect 5 to 10 inches of rain, and in Cuba a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is possible.
And now comes the tricky part of forecasting. What will Elsa end up doing? Elsa is expected to lose some of her intensity if she tracks Cuba. So the big question will be how soon and what rotation does Elsa turn on Monday when she arrives on the shores of Bermuda?
In accordance with Weather.com, there are still a number of clues the storm could take, from moving east to the Gulf of Mexico, to nearby, or even the Florida peninsula.