New cases of COVID-19 are declining in most of the country, even in some states with hesitant populations. But almost all states receiving this trend have below-average vaccination rates, and experts warn that pandemic relief could be transient in regions where few people are inoculated.
Nationwide total cases have declined in one week, going from a seven-day average of nearly 21,000 on May 29 to 14,315 on Saturday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. For weeks, states and cities have been removing virus restrictions and mask mandates, even inland.
Experts said some states see increased immunity because there were high rates of natural spread of the disease, which has so far killed nearly 600,000 Americans.
“We certainly get some benefit from the population from our previous cases, but we paid for it,” said Dr. Thomas Dobbs, a Mississippi state health agent. “We paid for it with deaths.”
More than 7,300 Mississippi people have died as a result of the pandemic and the state has the sixth highest per capita mortality rate.
Dobbs estimated that about 60 percent of residents in the state have “some underlying immunity.”
“So now we’re seeing this effect, most likely, because we have a combination of natural, vaccine-induced immunity,” Dobbs said.
Only eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming) have seen an average of seven days of infection rates they have been rising since two weeks earlier, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. All of them, except Hawaii, have reported vaccination rates below the U.S. average of 39.7% fully vaccinated, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The ten states with the fewest new cases per capita during this time period have been vaccinated above the national average. This includes the three most vaccinated states in the nation: Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut.
Medical experts said a number of factors are playing into the drop in the number of cases across the country, including vaccines, natural immunity to exposure to the virus, warmer weather and people spending less time. inside.
But Dr. Leana Wen, a professor of public health at George Washington University, said she is concerned that the natural immunity of people who have been exposed to the coronavirus will soon decline. And he worries that states with low vaccination rates could become hot spots.
“Just because we’re lucky in June doesn’t mean we’re still lucky in late fall and winter,” said Wen, the former Baltimore City Health Commissioner. “We could have more transmissible, more virulent variants here and those who don’t have immunity or have declining immunity could be susceptible again.”
In Mississippi, about 835,000 people have been completely vaccinated, or 28% of the population, compared to the national average of 43%. But despite the delayed vaccination rate, the state’s rotating average of daily new cases in the past two weeks has dropped by about 18 percent, according to Johns Hopkins.
Dr. Albert Ko, who chairs the Yale Department of Microbial Disease Epidemiology, said there are no exact data showing what percentage of the population in “high-load” states, such as Alabama or Texas, has been exposed. to the virus, but said estimates have put it up to 50%.
“I don’t think it denies the importance of vaccination, especially because the levels of antibodies that are obtained that are induced by a natural infection are lower than we have for our best vaccine,” Ko said.
Ko said it is important that even those who are exposed to the disease get vaccinated so that natural immunity does not last as long as vaccine immunity and antibody levels are lower.
Wen said the research strongly suggests that vaccinations provide a benefit to those who already have some antibodies due to the infection.
“I think it’s a fallacy that a lot of people have this recovery which means you don’t have to get vaccinated anymore,” he said.
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Citation: As COVID-19 cases decrease, vaccine-delayed areas still present risk (2021, June 13) recovered on June 13, 2021 at https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-06- covid-cases-wane-vaccine-lagging- zones.html
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